F-35 JSF 의 4가지 성공요인, Four Reasons for Confidence in the F-35...

 

미국 버지니아주 알링턴 소재 민간연구소 Lexington Institute 의 Loren Thompson 이 지난 11월 30일자로 작성, 발표한 글 입니다.

참고로 Thompson 은 F-35 JSF 제작사 Lockheed Martin 사의 consultant 이기도 합니다.

 

글의 내용은 제목에서 보는 바와 같이, 2009년 현재 총 개발사업비 약 3,000 억불 규모로 미국 포함 9개국이 참여하고 미 Lockheed

Martin 사가 제작하고 있는, F-35 JSF 사업의 당위성을 4가지로 요약 정리한 것 입니다.

 

기존 운용중인 모든 전투기들을 대체할 후보 기종으로는 F-35 외에는 대안이 없다는 점과, 현재 개발사업이 진행되고 있는 타 기종

들과 비교시 개발기간의 연장 및 개발비 상승은 양호하다는 등의 주장입니다.

 

이 글에 대해서 단순히 필자가 Lockheed Martin 의 자문역이라는 입장에서 동 사업의 당위성을 강조하는 글로도 이해가 됩니다만

한편으론, 현재 F-35 JSF 개발사업 진행과정에서 노출되고 있는 여러 문제점들이 하루속히 해결되고 성공적으로 마무리 되기를

염원하는 뜻으로 작성된 글로도 이해가 됩니다.

 

한편, 본 글에 대해서 AW&ST 의 Bill Sweetman 은 12월 2일 자신의 블로그에 조목조목 반박하는 내용의 글을 올렸고, 이에 다시

Thompson 의 반론이 렉싱턴 연구소 홈페이지에 올라오는 등 치열한 논쟁이 벌어지고 있습니다.

 

참고로 관심 있으신 분들을 위해 Bill Sweetman 의 블로그를 링크합니다.  --->  Ares blog

 

끝으로 두 사람의 논쟁을 비교하시면, 현재 진행되고 있는 F-35 JSF 사업에 있어서 문제점은 무엇이고, 그 문제점은 어떤 요인으로

인해 발생되었으며, 그 해결책은 무엇인가 등을 객관적 이고도 균형된 시각으로 이해하는데 도움이 될 것으로 생각합니다.

 

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 현지시각 2009. 8. 13, F-35B (BF-02) 가 Probe-and-Drogue 방식에 의한 첫 공중급유 시험비행 모습 (© Lockheed Martin)

 

FOUR REASONS FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE F-35

Author:Loren B. Thompson, Ph.D.

Date:Monday, November 30, 2009

Lexington Institute

 

Issue Brief

 

If you don't follow the defense business closely, then you can be excused for believing that the F-35 joint strike fighter is in trouble. The $300 billion program to develop a stealthy, multirole tactical aircraft for three U.S. military services and at least nine allies has been the focus of negative coverage since approximately April 6, when defense secretary Robert Gates announced the Air Force would buy no more F-22 fighters. Almost overnight, critics who had been assailing the F-22 trained their sights on the F-35 and resumed firing.

 

The complaints certainly sound familiar. Cost increases. Development delays. Design flaws. This is standard fare for any new weapons program. Because the Pentagon's approach to projecting the cost of new weapons is like the four phases of grief -- phase one is denial -- new programs always go through a difficult period of adjustment to reality. one facet of this ritualized process is the swing from optimism to despair, a transition aided by the jockeying for power of bureaucratic factions such as the weapons testing community and the program analysis mafia. These groups gain influence when anxiety rises, so they exude pessimism at every turn. But the F-35 program isn't really all that troubled, and Pentagon acquisition czar Ashton Carter will see the bureaucratic politics for what they are. Here are four reasons the F-35 program is going to turn out fine.

 

1. There is no alternative. When the Clinton Administration decided to replace the cold-war fighters of three services with variants of one aircraft, it made the joint strike fighter indispensable to the armed forces. Secretary Gates amplified that effect by terminating the F-22 -- the only other fighter with comparable survivability. If F-35 were to falter, the defense department would have to begin crash programs to develop replacements for everything from Air Force F-16s to Marine jumpjets, and it would have no chance of fielding those replacements before the advanced age of existing fighters undermined U.S. air power.

 

2. Other programs are faring worse. The F-35 program is months behind schedule on key goals such as the delivery of test aircraft. These delays are costly, but they compare favorably with delays seen in other major aircraft development programs. The Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 commercial transports are both running years late in their development, and the Airbus A400 military transport is so troubled that it may not be fixable. The F-35 program is more complicated than any of these programs -- it must develop three different versions of the same airframe -- and yet it has progressed more smoothly.

 

3. The design concept is sound. The F-35 design exploits airframe, engine and sensor advances previously developed for the F-22 fighter. Thus, many of its key features (like stealth) have already been proven in principle. While the F-35 program must develop different variants of the plane for the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, there will be 80% commonality of parts among the versions -- making the planes cheaper to produce in quantity and cheaper to maintain in the field. And once a key part or component is successfully tested in one version, there is good reason to believe it will work in the other versions.

 

4. The development strategy is refined. The F-35 development approach is not like that used on previous fighters. First, it benefits from the availability of management and engineering tools that did not exist prior to the information age. Second, billions of dollars have been invested in the early stages of the program to reduce risks. Third, the contractor learned many lessons from developing the similarly configured F-22. The pessimistic cost projections for the program failed to take these factors into account, and thus over-estimated cost growth for 2011 by 300%. Bottom line: F-35 is progressing at a healthy pace, and is not in trouble.